@PotomacCyclist 29032 wrote:
But there have been other days where the hourly forecast is for a 0% chance of rain for the rest of the day and night. Then a rain shower comes through.
“other days”? That is not very scientific. Since meteorology is based in science and math using extremely complex models run on supercomputers, to make any meaningful statements about accuracy you’re going to need little bit more than an anecdote.
@PotomacCyclist 29032 wrote:
I still check those forecasts because there’s no alternative. But I wish they would at least build in some leeway in case they think there’s a decent chance of rain. Helps a little with scheduling.
There are other forecast alternatives, but you’re right, 100% accurate forecasts do not exist. If you’d like to devote the next few decades of your life to making that happen and providing the alternative to future PotomacCyclists then please do because the field could use a few new ground breakers to really push the science of forecasting forward. I can say that in the past 10-20 years, forecasts have gotten tremendously better and more accurate. The 5-7 day forecast today is as accurate as the 1-3 day forecast was 20 years ago. I can point you to some scientific articles about that if you want.
Anyway, I’m just giving you a hard time because I have degrees in the field and I’m a little sensitive when people complain about busted forecasts. My go to response while I was in college was – “You try to predict the future.” Seems appropriate.