January ’16 – Trail Condition: That time they predicted mind-boggling amounts of snow

[PotomacCyclist]

I read it as, probably some snow, but they have no idea how much at this point. Anywhere between 0.01″ and infinity. Closer to 0.01″ on that scale though.

[DismalScientist]

Isn’t any finite number by definition closer to 0.01 than infinity?

[dkel]

@DismalScientist 132552 wrote:

Isn’t any finite number by definition closer to 0.01 than infinity?

And the amount of water on earth isn’t infinite anyway.

[PotomacCyclist]

Says who? I demand proof.

And as of this moment, there is no defined or finite number.

[DismalScientist]

The difference between any finite number and infinity is infinite. The difference between two finite numbers is finite. QED.

[vvill]

@Steve O 132544 wrote:

Which means a 30 percent chance of less than an inch.

Yeah but they seem pretty “ballpark” numbers to begin with – 1 significant figure. They have this disclaimer with the percentages:

Quote:

We remain conservative with snow chances because there is still a lot of uncertainty in any forecast so far.

I’m quite content to round 70% up to 100% if I get to ride in some decent snow.

[Crickey7]

Is it too early to panic yet? I don’t want to miss my chance.

[vvill]

@vvill 132563 wrote:

Yeah but they seem pretty “ballpark” numbers to begin with – 1 significant figure. They have this disclaimer with the percentages:[/quote]

And, yeah:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/forecasts-converging-on-serious-friday-saturday-snowstorm/

Quote:

D.C. metro area snow probabilities

Chance of at least 1 inch: 90 percent
Chance of at least 4 inches: 75 percent
Chance of at least 8 inches: 65 percent
Chance of at least 12 inches: 50 percent
Chance of at least 20 inches: 15 percent

I don’t fully understand why they drop chances so much when it’s further out from an event. If it’s uncertain, it’s uncertain – but shouldn’t that just mean the probability has a bigger range of error, not lower?

[mstone]

@vvill 132616 wrote:

I don’t fully understand why they drop chances so much when it’s further out from an event. If it’s uncertain, it’s uncertain – but shouldn’t that just mean the probability has a bigger range of error, not lower?

Usually the alarmist >1week forecasts rely on a single model that’s going for the gold (headlines). There are a bunch of other models that call bs, and it’s the evaluation of all of them that lowers the probability. As the date nears, the models generally start to converge.

[PotomacCyclist]

@DismalScientist 132559 wrote:

The difference between any finite number and infinity is infinite. The difference between two finite numbers is finite. QED.

Well, Weather Underground was posting an indefinite “number” before, so that isn’t really defined. They just said “12+” which can really mean anything although, yes, I understand that they aren’t claiming there will be 100 million, billion, zillion inches of snow.

It was a difference between undefined and infinite (on WU) although W. Post did list a number. Anyway…

[PotomacCyclist]

And now the models are converging:

“Every major computer model is now forecasting double-digit snowfall totals for the D.C. area Friday and Saturday.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/forecasts-converging-on-serious-friday-saturday-snowstorm/

The W. Post is still holding back on specific predictions. But at a certain point, precision doesn’t matter when it comes to practical concerns like gov’t/business/school closures and transportation difficulties. With a high likelihood of at least 4-8 inches, it’s safe to say that the federal gov’t will close on Fri., along with all the private businesses and organizations that follow their lead. I would be very surprised to see schools opening on Fri. except maybe some places to the southeast of DC.

More relevant here, cycling will be very challenging and inadvisable. The drivers who are out on the roads will have difficulty seeing cyclists through the heavy snow. I don’t plan to make any bike trips of significant distance that day. If anything, I might just ride on empty, local streets on CaBi to escape cabin fever, but nothing more than that.

One decision that is dependent on the amount of snow is Metro’s policy of when to close above-ground lines and stations.

http://www.wmata.com/getting_around/safety_security/snowmap.cfm

“Metrorail can operate very close to a normal schedule in snowfall of four to six inches. … When snowfall approaches eight inches, it’s a different story.”

They don’t say cite the exact amount of snow that will cause them to shut down above-ground lines. “Approach[ing] eight inches.” If current forecasts are correct, we will be close enough to that point where Metro will likely close the above-ground lines. Maybe not in the morning but likely in the afternoon. If you take MetroRail (or Metrobus), keep this in mind.

Back in the days of Snowmageddon, I got stuck in downtown DC. I thought Metro would be available, but they announced a surprise closure hours before there was any accumulation that day. However, there was still a lot of snow on trails and grassy areas from the storm a week before. There were no taxis at all in downtown DC. Very few private cars either. No Capital Bikeshare back then. (That would arrive later in the year.) If CaBi had been in place, I could have taken that. But as it was, I had no bike or car, Metro was closed and no taxis were available. So I walked back to Arlington. The 14th St/George Mason Bridge path had about 6-12 inches of snow from the week before. Walking on that put me dangerously close to the top of the railing, but there was no alternative, unless I wanted to walk down the middle of the road lanes on I-395. One minor slip on that frozen snow pack and I could have fallen over the edge of the railing. At least it felt that way.

That was definitely the most miserable commute I’ve ever had, one I don’t wish to repeat. So I won’t go anywhere that a Metro above-ground closure would strand me. At least now there is Capital Bikeshare. But even they have a policy of closing during some major weather events. It’s possible that they could shut down the entire system to keep people from biking around in the worst of the snowstorm. Don’t rely on CaBi during a blizzard because it may not be available.

I think the only places that stayed open during Snowmaggden/Snowpocalypse were a couple restaurants and coffee shops. Maybe some will stay open this Friday too, especially if the snow totals are closer to 4 inches than 12+ inches.

[Powerful Pete]

Yay! Time to make sure you have your snow tires ready!

😎

[consularrider]

@PotomacCyclist 132620 wrote:

…More relevant here, cycling will be very challenging and inadvisable. The drivers who are out on the roads will have difficulty seeing cyclists through the heavy snow. I don’t plan to make any bike trips of significant distance that day. If anything, I might just ride on empty, local streets on CaBi to escape cabin fever, but nothing more than that.

Depends on how early the Toolcat starts working on the Custis Trail and the rider’s proximity to same. Can you all take turns driving the Toolcat to make sure that there is a five mile cleared trail for all my Virginia XX teammates to ride? DC and Maryland, you’re on your own.

[Tim Kelley]

TOOLCAT

[kcb203]

I’m kicking myself for leaving my mountain bike at the in-laws in Richmond at Christmas. We didn’t have room in the car, and I only had a rooftop carrier for one bike, so I brought back my cross bike. I’ll be back down there for Monster Cross in mid-Feb to retrieve it.

Unfortunately, the cross bike has tubular tires, so I can’t put on studded tires. My other three bikes don’t do well in the snow (carbon racing bike, tri bike, 1987 Cannondale racing bike converted to fixie). I recently sold my other cross bike with clinchers, and I donated a hybrid to Phoenix bikes that I hadn’t ridden in years. I’m seriously thinking about buying a fat bike this week, but don’t think I’d really get much use out of it.

[Author]

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