And now the models are converging:
“Every major computer model is now forecasting double-digit snowfall totals for the D.C. area Friday and Saturday.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/forecasts-converging-on-serious-friday-saturday-snowstorm/
The W. Post is still holding back on specific predictions. But at a certain point, precision doesn’t matter when it comes to practical concerns like gov’t/business/school closures and transportation difficulties. With a high likelihood of at least 4-8 inches, it’s safe to say that the federal gov’t will close on Fri., along with all the private businesses and organizations that follow their lead. I would be very surprised to see schools opening on Fri. except maybe some places to the southeast of DC.
More relevant here, cycling will be very challenging and inadvisable. The drivers who are out on the roads will have difficulty seeing cyclists through the heavy snow. I don’t plan to make any bike trips of significant distance that day. If anything, I might just ride on empty, local streets on CaBi to escape cabin fever, but nothing more than that.
One decision that is dependent on the amount of snow is Metro’s policy of when to close above-ground lines and stations.
http://www.wmata.com/getting_around/safety_security/snowmap.cfm
“Metrorail can operate very close to a normal schedule in snowfall of four to six inches. … When snowfall approaches eight inches, it’s a different story.”
They don’t say cite the exact amount of snow that will cause them to shut down above-ground lines. “Approach[ing] eight inches.” If current forecasts are correct, we will be close enough to that point where Metro will likely close the above-ground lines. Maybe not in the morning but likely in the afternoon. If you take MetroRail (or Metrobus), keep this in mind.
Back in the days of Snowmageddon, I got stuck in downtown DC. I thought Metro would be available, but they announced a surprise closure hours before there was any accumulation that day. However, there was still a lot of snow on trails and grassy areas from the storm a week before. There were no taxis at all in downtown DC. Very few private cars either. No Capital Bikeshare back then. (That would arrive later in the year.) If CaBi had been in place, I could have taken that. But as it was, I had no bike or car, Metro was closed and no taxis were available. So I walked back to Arlington. The 14th St/George Mason Bridge path had about 6-12 inches of snow from the week before. Walking on that put me dangerously close to the top of the railing, but there was no alternative, unless I wanted to walk down the middle of the road lanes on I-395. One minor slip on that frozen snow pack and I could have fallen over the edge of the railing. At least it felt that way.
That was definitely the most miserable commute I’ve ever had, one I don’t wish to repeat. So I won’t go anywhere that a Metro above-ground closure would strand me. At least now there is Capital Bikeshare. But even they have a policy of closing during some major weather events. It’s possible that they could shut down the entire system to keep people from biking around in the worst of the snowstorm. Don’t rely on CaBi during a blizzard because it may not be available.
I think the only places that stayed open during Snowmaggden/Snowpocalypse were a couple restaurants and coffee shops. Maybe some will stay open this Friday too, especially if the snow totals are closer to 4 inches than 12+ inches.
.
