Freezing Saddles 2018

[cvcalhoun]

As noted by Amalitza in the sticky:

Usually sometime around Halloween, planning threads pop up on the forum (in the Freezing Saddles subforum, here http://bikearlingtonforum.com/forumd…ng-Competition ), where we argue about things like e-bikes, and whether 10 points per day is the right number and other rules minutia. Past rules are subject to change in the yearly planning process.

So I figure it’s about time for the annual arguments to begin. I’ve put up a draft registration form at this link. Note that there is no “Submit” button on this form, because for the moment, it is only to give people something to discuss. I am reconciled to the fact that at least one person will try to submit in spite of this, but at least the attempt will be unsuccessful. You can respond to this post with any comments on the draft registration form.

Last year, the leaders were:

Hozn: Software/backend. (This year, it will be jrenaut and hozn.)
Amalitza: Sticky. (This year, it will be Henry.)
Sunyata: Team assignments.
CBGAnimal and wheels&wings: Happy hours.
Steve O: Pointless prize organization.
Me: Registration.

Please let me know if you’d like to continue your role this year. If not, we’ll need to find new people for those roles. Edits above show replacements for this year.

Any other suggestions for what we need to argue about?

Topic

[hozn]

Interesting idea. Not sure yet on how to automate/track it in sw, but I’m sure it could be done.

That’s a good book too!

[lordofthemark]

@Steve O 169044 wrote:

If you ever read The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki, this has a bit of that built into it: no one person has much effect, but the “Crowd” is wiser than even the best experts, and ends up reflecting the optimal outcome.

Right now what the crowd is telling me is that the old FS rules (circa winter 2017) were so great, that FS is oversubscribed, and we are among other things arguing about whom to throw out (losers? non-participants? the unsocial? Instead of just whomever tried to register late) . That suggests that improving it in any way is not actually a priority.

#Wisdomofmarkets #economistsareweird #weshouldalljustgoforaride #notnecessarilytogetheryouunderstand

[Judd]

@Steve O 169044 wrote:

If you ever read The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki, this has a bit of that built into it: no one person has much effect, but the “Crowd” is wiser than even the best experts, and ends up reflecting the optimal outcome.

I haven’t read that, but I have read Wikipedia, which tells me:

“New Coke was discontinued in July 2002. It remains influential as a cautionary tale against tampering too extensively with a well-established and successful brand.”

[AFHokie]

@Steve O 169044 wrote:

If you ever read The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki, this has a bit of that built into it: no one person has much effect, but the “Crowd” is wiser than even the best experts, and ends up reflecting the optimal outcome.

Just remember there’s truth in the statement that “none of us is as dumb as all of us”

Not to pick on them, but keep in mind people such as Judd, Komorebi, & LSG who I rarely see riding apart from each other will benefit the most from these “social” points.

Think about how fast a team with a few people who already know each other and typically ride together will pull away from teams who start as strangers.

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[LhasaCM]

@AFHokie 169054 wrote:

Just remember there’s truth in the statement that “none of us is as dumb as all of us”

Not to pick on them, but keep in mind people such as Judd, Komorebi, & LSG who I rarely see riding apart from each other will benefit the most from these “social” points.

Think about how fast a team with a few people who already know each other and typically ride together will pull away from teams who start as strangers.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930AZ using Tapatalk

The idea as I understood it was you would only get credit for a person once, so there was not an inherent huge benefit to scenarios like (not to single people out) jrenaut riding with his wife or what you noted…just a one time benefit.

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[Judd]

@AFHokie 169054 wrote:

Not to pick on them, but keep in mind people such as Judd, Komorebi, & LSG who I rarely see riding apart from each other will benefit the most from these “social” points.

Truth – Here’s the data from Strava since May of 2016 when I first met Komorebi and LSG. Days are calculated in number of hours, so 1 day = 24 hours of shared riding time, so 500 hours with Komorebi and 158 hours with LSG.

I’d also add that although, I’ve ridden with both of them the most out of anybody, I don’t consider our rides together as social. We’re all quiet people and can ride many miles without saying a word to each other.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]15803[/ATTACH]

[dkel]

@Steve O 169044 wrote:

no one person has much effect, but the “Crowd” is wiser than even the best experts, and ends up reflecting the optimal outcome.

This perfectly describes all those posts vilifying Steve O! I guess there’s nothing left but to get rid of him altogether…

[Steve O]

@AFHokie 169054 wrote:

Not to pick on them, but keep in mind people such as Judd, Komorebi, & LSG who I rarely see riding apart from each other will benefit the most from these “social” points.
Think about how fast a team with a few people who already know each other and typically ride together will pull away from teams who start as strangers.

No. You only get points once for riding with someone; not each time.

[Steve O]

@lordofthemark 169047 wrote:

Right now what the crowd is telling me is that the old FS rules (circa winter 2017) were so great, that FS is oversubscribed, and we are among other things arguing about whom to throw out (losers? non-participants? the unsocial? Instead of just whomever tried to register late) . That suggests that improving it in any way is not actually a priority.

I don’t get that sense at all. There’s been a pretty active discussion about revaluing points to make early miles more valuable. Many people have weighed in agreeing that FS is more than just days and miles, and the fact that this discussion is so long is a strong indicator that people are looking for ways to make something good even better.

We should definitely try a new scoring system this year. Here’s why: there is no downside.
Two possible outcomes:

• We like the new system better
• We don’t like the new system better

In each case we’ll learn what it is that made it better or not. Even if it’s number 2, we will learn what it is that will improve it. It’s impossible that the current scoring system is optimal; it’s completely arbitrary (as is any system). The only reason for keeping it is the lamest reason (excuse) of all time, “That’s the way we’ve always done it.” If we change nothing, then we deny ourselves the opportunity to get better.
@Judd 169052 wrote:

“New Coke was discontinued in July 2002. It remains influential as a cautionary tale against tampering too extensively with a well-established and successful brand.”

New Coke actually teaches us exactly the right lesson. In the process of trying that experiment, they actually learned a lot about their product, their brand, their marketing and their customers. I suspect in the long run it made Coke stronger.

[Bob James]

Should a poll vote (i.e. “the wisdom of the crowd”) be taken if the current point system should be changed, and if so, what those changes should be? Or do the designated event leaders (who are very much appreciated) decide? Just from our recent few voices (of the potential 250 participants) in this forum thread, “keep as is” appears more popular (with some willing to go along with a change, but not advocating for a change, which should count as “keep as is”).

I vote no change in official scoring/leader-boards, but as many changes as desired in pointless prizes.

[lordofthemark]

I am not talking about “stated preference” what people are saying. I am talking about revealed preference. More people want to sign up than we can accommodate. Which indicates that people really like it as it is now. We don’t seem to be seeing people leaving – the one person who is leaving expressed a dislike for this kind of change.

Even from the stated preference POV what is the problem we are trying to solve? Some people join and don’t socialize in any particular way? AFAICT that is a problem with excessive recruitment (where are all these people coming from anyway?) see the RCannon quote earlier. Giving points for Strava ridealongs probably won’t work, and seems to already have elicited bad feelings. Dropping people who never show up from the competition would work, but seems to make many people even more uncomfortable.

I will participate and enjoy however FS is scored, as I have said. But it seems to me our problem, if there is any, is excess popularity. Since a sign up fee could create legal issues, the standard economist response to a capacity constraint (which would likely also deter the marginally interested) is unavailable.

[lordofthemark]

. Many people have weighed in agreeing that FS is more than just days and miles,

It is. But not everything that It is needs to be incented through the scoring system. It just emerges naturally as part of a light hearted competition. Incenting something (here I do not speak as an economist) can change the quality of something, especially a social interaction, a concern several have expressed. So unless there is a strong need to, I would suggest not incenting social interaction, beyond the “natural” incentives (we want our team to win – we know to get people riding a group ride to empty calories or adult beverages works, so we organize it) And I am not convinced there is a strong need.

If there is a need – If FS is less social, I would look not only at scoring, but at what has caused this – is FS too big? Is it more geographically farflung than it was? Are we inviting people who lack the “spirit”?

[Steve O]

@hozn 169017 wrote:

I think it makes sense to have a “most official” leaderboard.

Actually, another idea I had (I never run out of ideas) is to have a rotating leaderboard, so each time one logs into FS, a different one is shown. It would raise the interest in some of the other metrics we already track but most people never look at (rainiest, snowiest, coldest, slowest, #kidical, Hinds point, that cool bubble chart, most days team, etc.)

[Steve O]

Discussion of rules and scoring now has its own thread.

[ginacico]

@lordofthemark 169063 wrote:

Which indicates that people really like it as it is now. We don’t seem to be seeing people leaving –

………yet. Not everyone is expressing it on the forum, but I am not alone.

You fail to account for people who stopped participating last year, partly due to the game’s change in direction. And for the dozens of newcomers submitting their one obligatory qualifying post on the forum, who intend to ride their bikes and otherwise prefer to stay anonymous.

Again, who cares what I think. I’ve already bailed with no regrets, and you’ll get 250 regardless. But the change in dynamics (especially the suggestions that meddle with and complicate scoring) IS causing a change in participation.

@lordofthemark 169047 wrote:

That suggests that improving it in any way is not actually a priority.

@lordofthemark 169065 wrote:

. Many people have weighed in agreeing that FS is more than just days and miles,
It is. But not everything that It is needs to be incented through the scoring system. It just emerges naturally as part of a light hearted competition.

Agree with above.

[Author]

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