Thunderstorms & Bike Commuting

[creadinger]

@adamx 3603 wrote:

Ann; with these weather forecasters you could be held hostage into eternity..these weather dudes are awful…i’ve been commuting in the area for about 6 years and by stroke of pure luck and timing i’ve only been caught in rain or storms going home a few times..amazing…

Wow, so you’re obviously not a fan of weather forecasters I guess. I’d like to see you go a week or two without listening to a single forecast or glance at the radar and see how you do. I’m sorry that predicting the future isn’t quite as easy as you think it should be and that forecasting storms that cover only a couple of square miles in a local area that is tens of thousands of square miles in size isn’t an exact science. I can tell you from experience that the folks at the Capital Weather Gang and the NWS office in Sterling, VA are actually quite good at what they do.

I suggest you vent your frustrations with weather somewhere else.

[acc]

And They Lived Happily Ever After…

As we speak, Spartacus (my bike), is being fitted with grillz otherwise known as temporary fenders. The nice thing is I can put them on and take them off easily. All ick factors aside, I was told putting them on would keep my drivetrain cleaner. God knows there’s nothing I enjoy more than spending time with a toothbrush cleaning cogs, but I’ll manage somehow. So he should be ready this afternoon and maybe if the weather holds up we can get down to Wakefield Park for the zoo this evening.

ann

[Riley Casey]

Fenders are good for what ails ya’.

[Mark Blacknell]

See what happens when you poke the weather people?

[PotomacCyclist]

FYI: Don’t trust long-term weather forecasts, “long-term” being defined as more than 4 hours.

Last night, Weather.com said that there was a 100% chance of rain showers for this afternoon, with a 100% chance of T-showers from 2-5 pm, followed by 80-90% chance of rain until midnight. Well, I’m not aware of any rain this afternoon. The updated forecast says there is a 10-35% chance of rain and scattered T-storms until 5:30 pm. Then the heavy stuff rolls in.

The Nationals baseball game was postponed from this afternoon because of those weather forecasts. They could have played the entire game in sunny/partly cloudy weather before any rain appeared (except maybe a sprinkle or two).

This same scenario happened a couple days ago. Forecast: 80-100% chance of morning/afternoon storms. Reality: No rain or just a few sprinkles until late evening.

You do have to be careful about lightning storms, but you can also keep tabs on whether there will actually be any lightning storms in the area. The weather forecasts aren’t so great at predicting the “usual” spring/summer-type storms that result from the warm fronts clashing with cooler air.

If it’s a full-out storm, the best bet is to wait it out in a protected area. For normal rain showers, just enjoy the ride, while expecting to have more than a few mudspots on your backside by the end of the ride. At least the temperatures are warmer these days. Riding in the rain on a 45F day is miserable. Riding in the rain on a 70F day isn’t bad at all. (But wipe down the bike and lubricate your bike chain after you get home.)

[CCrew]

@PotomacCyclist 3646 wrote:

Well, I’m not aware of any rain this afternoon.

Umm, I must have imagined all that then Sure rained where I was.

[acc]

I shared the same delusion about 90 minutes ago. It seemed so real. There were even thunder sound effects. but that is the random nature of pop-up showers around here. At least I don’t have to water the plants tonight.

Got fenders.
ann

[jrenaut]

@jrenaut 3615 wrote:

I like the mud stripe on my backpack, too – it keeps the cat from using it as a pillow when I get home.

Clearly not rainy enough this morning – the cat is asleep on my backpack as I type this.

[PrintError]

Add me to the list. I biked in all of those blizzards, I could care less about a little rain.

[creadinger]

A nice little article from the CWG showing what actually happened with the rainfall this week and why some people (especially those who use weather.com) felt like the forecasts for heavy rain were a little off in localized areas.

This is one reason why I like CWG. They’re some of the few who do post-storm analyses talking about what may have gone right or wrong with forecasts. With most of the region receiving 2-4″ of rain except for the areas near DC and Baltimore and to the Southeast, the forecasts could have been better, but not bad considering it was also a pretty difficult to forecast storm. Certainly not worth the ridiculous sentiments by some above.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-dc-dry-tongue/2011/05/19/AFneqn7G_blog.html#pagebreak

I hope everyone enjoyed their 2011 bike to work day.

[Author]

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