[PotomacCyclist]

@DismalScientist 132559 wrote:

The difference between any finite number and infinity is infinite. The difference between two finite numbers is finite. QED.

Well, Weather Underground was posting an indefinite “number” before, so that isn’t really defined. They just said “12+” which can really mean anything although, yes, I understand that they aren’t claiming there will be 100 million, billion, zillion inches of snow.

It was a difference between undefined and infinite (on WU) although W. Post did list a number. Anyway…

[PotomacCyclist]

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Something appropriate for today’s holiday – the Smithsonian Anacostia Community Museum. It’s a bit out of the way and the ride goes through some poorer areas of Anacostia and Fort Stanton, but it’s manageable during the day. (I probably wouldn’t ride through there at night though.)

I’ve read about the museum but I had never visited before. I didn’t have enough time to go inside. Next time. It would have been nice to get out of the 5F wind chill.

There are bike racks just off to the right, plus a few more at the back end of the building.

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The view of central DC from one of the hills of Anacostia. It’s a modestly challenging climb to get to the Museum. It will probably deter most casual cyclists. It’s not the toughest hill ever, but it involves some work.

[PotomacCyclist]

Says who? I demand proof.

And as of this moment, there is no defined or finite number.

[PotomacCyclist]

I read it as, probably some snow, but they have no idea how much at this point. Anywhere between 0.01″ and infinity. Closer to 0.01″ on that scale though.

[PotomacCyclist]

Today’s update – more speculation. But there is increasing agreement that there will be at least some snow in the DC area.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/18/confidence-growing-for-major-winter-storm-this-weekend-but-its-not-a-lock/

The current Capital Weather Gang forecast

Next chance of accumulating snow: Friday to Sunday

Chance of at least 1 inch: 70 percent

Chance of at least 4 inches: 40 percent

Chance of at least 8 inches: 20 percent

[PotomacCyclist]

Random Internet Photo (RIP)

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[PotomacCyclist]

The Capital Weather Gang finally posted about the possible winter storm at the end of the week. They say it’s too far out to make a solid forecast. There could be a major snow event, or there might be no snow at all in the DC region. The different forecast models disagree on where the possible storm could track. It could veer off to the north or the south, or move right through DC. Not much of an answer. But it helps to be aware of the possibility of a big snowstorm.

“Next chance of accumulating snow: January 21-24
Percent chance of at least one inch: 30 percent (low probability mainly due to number of days away)

Not unsurprisingly six days out, a boatload of uncertainty still exists concerning the storm details. The models continue to jump from solution to solution. Until they reach a consensus, making a definitive forecast so far in advance is foolish.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/17/potential-for-major-winter-storm-late-next-week-but-also-major-question-marks/

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Weather Underground continues to boost their forecast snow totals. Every time I check, the amount of snow predicted for Friday increases. Now the forecast is showing 12+ inches of snow on Friday, and another 1-3 inches on Saturday. The high temperatures would be at or slightly above freezing on both days, which will have a major effect on how much snow we actually get.

Highs will be back in the mid 40s next week, along with some rain. That could lead to some snowmelt, but also to some icy conditions overnight and in the early mornings.

Although The Weather Channel owns Weather Underground, TWC preliminary forecast differs from that of WU.

TWC shows 90% chance of precipitation on Friday, 5-8 inches of snow. 80% chance of snow on Sat., 1-3 inches.

[PotomacCyclist]

@Steve O 132487 wrote:

You forgot. Nice thing about these monthly trail conditions threads is you can go back to last January/February and remind yourself.
http://bikearlingtonforum.com/showthread.php?8140-February-2015-Trail-Conditions&p=108524#post108524

No satire. I’m pretty good at willfully forgetting things if I want to, especially if there’s no need to remember. I honestly don’t remember much about last winter’s weather, except the “polar vortex” in February.

[PotomacCyclist]

An interesting article about why mornings remain dark in early January, even though the total time of sunlight increases each day in January (after the winter solstice). All of the extra daylight time is “added” onto the back end, in the evening.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/15/why-does-the-sun-still-rise-so-late-the-dark-mornings-of-january-explained/

But after Jan. 11, sunrise started to arrive earlier each day while sunset continued to fall later each day. Thus daylight hours are now extended at both ends.

[PotomacCyclist]

The forecast indicates a chance of snow around midday today, even though temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s.

But snow is more likely on Friday. The forecast has been changing. Yesterday, the prediction was 1-3 inches for Friday. Now the prediction on Weather Underground is 8-12 inches on Friday and another 3-5 inches on Saturday.

I don’t remember if we had any major snowfalls last winter. I don’t think so, but maybe I forgot. In any case, next weekend will be a major storm. If the forecast continues to indicate such heavy snowfall, it’s easy to think that almost everything will be closed or canceled in the DC region on Friday and Saturday. Well, everything except for BAFS. I believe that will still go on…

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NBC Washington is only saying a mix of rain and snow, changing to all snow on Fri. evening and into Sat. morning. They haven’t mentioned specific snowfall totals yet.

The W. Post Capital Weather Gang hasn’t posted any forecasts for next weekend yet.

[PotomacCyclist]

We annexed Kyiv? Cool.

[PotomacCyclist]

For some people it might be, those in their 60s and 70s. They may not be riding in 15 years.

[PotomacCyclist]

More like the dream of the next generation. Seems like this is on a 10-15 year schedule.

Not that we shouldn’t push for improved bike/pedestrian and multimodal connections though. The people in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s paved the way for much of the bike infrastructure we have today, including the MVT bridges over the ramps at National Airport, the bike path along the Wilson Bridge, Capital Bikeshare, etc. Some of those advocates didn’t really get to benefit from all of the projects because they took so long to develop and build. I’m grateful for their work, and that’s a reason to continue to push for improved and safer multimodal infrastructure.

As for the streetcar, I wouldn’t quite call it dead. It’s officially dead for now, but nothing prevents the idea from being revived later on. Probably not right away, but when traffic continues to back up on Columbia Pike over the coming decades, there could be another push, for either a streetcar or perhaps a MetroRail line (depending on how dense development is along the Pike and in Bailey’s Crossroads 10, 20 or 30 years from now). The replacement of the Washington Blvd bridge over Columbia Pike was designed to accommodate a streetcar line. That is still the case, even though the streetcar project was canceled.

That’s a long way off in the future, but so is the Long Bridge replacement. It makes sense to anticipate long-term transportation needs for such a project.

[PotomacCyclist]

I also think the overall benefits of increasing cycling and DC-region cyclist community building can outweigh the temporary inconvenience of the new forum list being less useful. I say this as someone who is not participating in BAFS. (I don’t use the new forum post list that much anyway. It’s easy for me to scan the main forum index and see which sub-forums are highlighted in bold type.)

[PotomacCyclist]

Demolition permit has been issued for the main former W. Post building at 1150 15th St. NW, on the 15th St. side of the intersection, along the 15th St protected bike lane.

http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/breaking_ground/2016/01/now-empty-longtime-washington-post-hq-comes-down.html

Demolition activities could begin soon, if they haven’t already. I would imagine that the 15th St protected bike lane will have to be moved away from the sidewalk while demolition is taking place. The earlier DDOT press release only covered the L St side of the site.

https://goo.gl/maps/bn44qkA5jT42

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