@chris_s 160241 wrote:
Just wanted to chime in and agree with jrenaut – I think accuracy could potentially be improved by looking not at what the weather actually was, but what the weather was forecast to be. People make decisions on whether to ride or not based on the forecast. So if it says 70% chance of rain, they decide not to ride and so the counts are lower, whether it actually ends up raining or not.
I wish I had access to Arlington weather forecast data back to 2009, but most of the sources just keep actual historical weather. Do any of you know of a data source for historical forecasts? As an economist, I’d love to “borrow” your research idea testing whether forecast or actual morning weather impacts the number of bike rides taken.
On a different note, I noticed that there is a higher than expected numbers of trips taken on Wednesdays versus other weekdays. Does anyone know why?
