[DismalScientist]

The nice thing that happens when the science is settled is that scientists no longer have to beg the government for continued funding.:rolleyes:

[DismalScientist]

Do you know of any climate change model suggesting that a reasonable outcome is that sea level will rise rapidly for 15 years and that then the rise will substantially end? A linearity assumption just assumes a constant change over time.

The original poster referred to the flood problem due to rising sea levels not me. Whether climate change affects storm frequency and intensity is heavily debated now, but eventually one or both sides of the debate will declare victory and demand any unrepentant opponents be subject to unspeakable torture.

[DismalScientist]

Assuming a modicum of linearity in the system will make a 16 inch rise in 16 years inconsistent with the high estimate of 19 inches in 31 years.

Actually, the 4 to 19 inches came from a 2008 publication. It’s 2019 now. How is that prediction panning out?

The only reason I’m being a pain here is given the relative magnitude of sea level rise and flood level heights caused by storms means that the 65% probably of an 8 foot flood, of true, is almost completely unrelated to sea level rise, presumably the harm associated with climate change.

On the notion of model consistency, if models of the same thing generate different results, how do we choose which model to trust?

PS: Any forecasting economist who doesn’t provide a standard error (a measure of range) when asked with his estimates should be drummed out of the profession.

[DismalScientist]

@mbroad 190386 wrote:

And the Navy is planning to invest big $$$ in DC to adapt to this flooding/sea level rise. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/pentagon-weighs-14-foot-flood-wall-at-historic-navy-yard-in-d-c

1.3 foot rise by 2035? You guys need to come up with a consistent set of numbers before one can figure out how to address these issues. How does a 1.3 foot over the next 16 years compare with historic sea level rises.

I noticed something about a rise in sea levels requiring walls around the Jefferson Memorial, but the article also mentioned ground subsidence also contributing to the need for walls. Only one of these is affected by climate change.

[DismalScientist]

According to climatechange.org, sea levels will rise between 4 inches and 19 inches by 2050. This implies without climate change, DC faces a 65% chance of seeing a flood over 6.5 to 7.75 ft in the next 30 years. :rolleyes:

[DismalScientist]

HOV-2 begins at the Beltway, so West Falls Church won’t work.
For parking on the WOD, I would suggest consularrider’s driveway, or at least the cul de sac on Four Mile Run Drive near Ohio.
You might want to consider parking anywhere in (far) North Arlington and cross the Chain Bridge and use the rough hiking trail up to the Capital Crescent Trail.

[DismalScientist]

That’s impressive. The police mouthpiece said the cyclist came off the sidewalk and hit the cruiser even though it is clear from the police video that the cruiser hit the cyclist in the side.
If you look at the first video, there was, in fact, a green arrow for southbound traffic to turn right. With the protected right turn, the cyclist did have a “do not walk” signal, which is also clear in the first video.

[DismalScientist]

A wise man once said that shit flows downhill.

[DismalScientist]

Meh… It’s OK since most cyclists don’t view drivers as fully human either.:rolleyes:

[DismalScientist]

Did he have a transponder and pay the toll?

Freeway riding is legal out west where there is no alternative route. In my experience, riding on paved 12 foot shoulders is not stressful at all.

[DismalScientist]

Tsk Tsk… Posting fake news might violate the terms under which the Washington Area Bike Forum uses this fine software from VBulletin.:rolleyes:

[DismalScientist]

LOTM (and other): Thinking about (parking or even flexipost) PBLs on residential streets, how does one deal with such prosaic issues as trash day or bus routes? Washington Blvd is a major bus route (2) collecting residents and delivering them to the Ballston metro and back home.

[DismalScientist]

@dasgeh 188383 wrote:

Not sure where you’re looking, but I studied this very closely when I had to take a kid to Upton hill from Cherrydale with no assist. Washington Blvd is much flatter, particularly in the stretch covering Harrison and Patrick Henry (which makes sense, as you have to go up from Washington to 16th).

Nope. Based on Strava segments: (I assume you are talking eastbound, because both are downhill from Harrison west as Harrison is at the top of the hill.)

Down Yaaawn (Washington Blvd from Greenbrier to Kennilworth) has a 2.0% grade eastbound
(Interestingly, YAAAWN, the reverse segment has a grade of 4.1%, which I think is wrong)

%^%$$#% Speedbumps! (16th Street from Harrison to Jefferson) has a 1.1% grade eastbound.

On the EFC to VHC route, if you were to take Washington Blvd, you should still turn left at Longfellow and take 16th Street to the Hospital, which would only involve 1 block of the study area. Of course, if you were going to VHC from the metro, it probably would make a lot more sense to get off at Ballston rather than EFC.

[DismalScientist]

I wasn’t going to bring this up, but if you look at the segment explore feature on Strava you will see that the grades on 16th Street are actually less than that those on Washington Blvd. As a frequent rider on both, I can confirm that, in fact 16th Street is flatter. (But, of course, one would expect 16th Street to be flatter as it is an older transportation corridor.)

As to how to get to the Hospital from Westover, you do realize that 16th Street literally goes directly from Westover to the Hospital? It makes absolutely no sense to take Washington to George Mason. From EFC to Westover, I would take the WOD to the pedestrian bridge to the Custis Spurt and up McKinley. This way I avoid the hill on Wash east of Sycamore and the associated merge area caused by traffic engineers thinking that is is smart having two lanes going straight east at the light at Sycamore. (Just take a gander at their plans for the future of EFC, where they are going to eliminate the right turn lane at Sycamore when it appears that half the traffic turns right and the other half goes straight.)

W-L to Tuckahoe? W-L is basically on top of the Custis trail, which basically intersects with Sycamore just south of East Falls Church metro, one block south of Washington Blvd. So the route is Custis (to WOD) to trail to access Metro. North on Sycamore and left on 26th. Another advantage of using this over Washington Blvd is that, east of Glebe, Washington Blvd is two narrow lanes each way with absolutely no accommodations for cyclists. West of Glebe to Harrison, Wash Blvd is one lane each way with wider lanes, but no bike lane paint.

@dasgeh 188351 wrote:

Where would the pedestrians go?

Where do the pedestrians going on the “PBLs” cited above. After all, they are actually MUPs.

[DismalScientist]

@zsionakides 188303 wrote:

Bike paths or shared used paths are typically defined by having an exclusive ROW. Virginia Ln and Macarthur’s cycletracks do not have exclusive ROW, however, their design makes them feel similar in comfort to an SUP.

OK then. Washington Blvd has (recently completed on the south side) sidewalks in its ROW. Why don’t we just call them cycletracks and we will be done?:rolleyes:

[Author]

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