No snow clearing this winter

[consularrider]

Do you think Zanna, Tim, or Chris would volunteer? Probably a better workout than Hains Point loops.

[NickBull]

@DismalScientist 68704 wrote:

The preceding analysis is based on paying someone $60/hour to shovel at 7/9 mph. I think that is optimistic. How much do you have to pay some teenager to get off his ass and shovel the sidewalk? Multiply that up to inflate the distance of your sidewalk to 7/9 of a mile and you will be paying a lot more than $60.

No it isn’t. It’s based on paying someone $60 an hour to drive a self-propelled snowblower that handles 83 tons per hour. The calculations involving hand-shoveling are to figure out how much snow is 83 tons.

[jabberwocky]

@MattAune 68703 wrote:

My stance here is probably pretty unpopular. The County and State should be spending significantly less on snow removal for roads, and certainly not increasing the budget to clear trails. Get winter tires and chains for your car, studded tires for your bike, or just plan ahead and expect to be at home when it snows more than a couple inches.

The economic loss (from lost productivity and taxes) you incur by having everyone just stay home would be orders of magnitude greater than the costs of just clearing the roads. Not to mention the costs of greatly increased accident rates and loss of life/injuries from those accidents.

[mstone]

@GregBain 68695 wrote:

OMG – hyperbole.

No, it’s not hyperbole, it’s reality. That’s what every locality that has looked at this has determined after running the numbers, and why nobody actually does it. Registration makes sense for cars because there are enough of them at a high enough value, which we’re already tracking for all sorts of reasons, that the registration fee can be a fairly trivial portion of the overall cost of the car. A comprehensive system of registration for bicycles would either require a very expensive enforcement component and a very high fee (like hundreds of dollars per bike, for a beater which costs less than that) or would not be enforced and wouldn’t generate much revenue. That’s not speculation, that’s the fate of municipal bike registration schemes across the country.

[rcannon100]

@NickBull 68701 wrote:

So given that there were 900 cyclists using the Custis in January, as cited by rcannon, that amounts to $3.80 per cyclist (maybe some cyclists are double-counted, but if the paths were cleared regularly there would also likely be more cyclists).

Just one correction. The bike counter counts “bikes.” And it can count the same bike twice. As I said, it is safe to assume that a signficant percentage of those counted were both to-and-from commuters. So its not 900 cyclists; its 900 bikes trips counted. Is that 450 cyclists? 500?

Another point would be that is the bike count on the east end of the trail, where the count is probably the highest. Out on the west end, I will guess, its signficantly lower. That is something someone can go look at and see. The point here is that the 900 count is good for only that point in the trail – not the full custis trail. I think you are using the 900 count and saying, okay, make that 900 count pay for snow removal for the entire trail…. when the cyclist may have only ride 1/2 mile of the custis.

[MattAune]

@NickBull 68715 wrote:

No it isn’t. It’s based on paying someone $60 an hour to drive a self-propelled snowblower that handles 83 tons per hour. The calculations involving hand-shoveling are to figure out how much snow is 83 tons.

What about capital costs? Fuel?

83 tons per hour is the published capacity provided by the manufacturer, how often is that correct even under optimal conditions? Is that for the wet snow we get here, or for the nice light powder in the mountains?

[DismalScientist]

@NickBull 68715 wrote:

No it isn’t. It’s based on paying someone $60 an hour to drive a self-propelled snowblower that handles 83 tons per hour. The calculations involving hand-shoveling are to figure out how much snow is 83 tons.

You are correct. Can one find a contractor willing to clear the Custis for $540? I would think putting a plow on a Bobcat would be more appropriate than a walking snowblower. The marginal cost based on labor depends on the labor’s alternative use. I have no idea how the county would place a budgetary cost for this. They can’t seem to plow public areas (sidewalks around schools, etc) even though the cost considerations are similar.

[MattAune]

@jabberwocky 68716 wrote:

The economic loss (from lost productivity and taxes) you incur by having everyone just stay home would be orders of magnitude greater than the costs of just clearing the roads. Not to mention the costs of greatly increased accident rates and loss of life/injuries from those accidents.

You honestly think that the state of Virginia stands to lose $55 million dollars in revenues due to snow annually if they do not clear the roads?

As far as accident rates. In my opinion they would go down if people didn’t have an expectation that the roads will be cleared and chose not to make the trip at all.

[DismalScientist]

@MattAune 68724 wrote:

You honestly think that the state of Virginia stands to lose $55 million dollars in revenues due to snow annually if they do not clear the roads?

Yes. Some of us have real jobs. Well, not me, but some of us do.

[jabberwocky]

Reston (which does clear all 55 miles of its paths) uses a mix of small plows and snowblowers. Plows seem to be for the bulk of the paths, and snowblowers for the smaller, narrower ones. I think the reston association has 4 bombardier sidewalk plows as their main fleet.

Their policy is they clear the paths anytime more than 2″ of snow falls. They get out there day or night as soon as it gets that deep. During the snowmageddon storm in 2010, they had the paths clear before Vdot even had a lot of the side roads taken care of.

[jabberwocky]

@MattAune 68724 wrote:

You honestly think that the state of Virginia stands to lose $55 million dollars in revenues due to snow annually if they do not clear the roads?

Uh, yeah? Without a doubt? I’d bet that shutting down just NoVA for one day would equal that. In state budget terms, 55 million is nothing. If people aren’t working, they aren’t earning money. If they aren’t earning money, they aren’t paying taxes and they certainly aren’t buying stuff.

EDIT: During the 2010 storm, the government was shut down because snow couldn’t be removed fast enough. The Office of Personnel Management director said the cost to the government in lost work was $100 million per day. Thats for 230,000 federal workers. What would the cost be for the 6+million people who live in VA over an entire winter of storms?
http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1963519,00.html

@MattAune 68724 wrote:

As far as accident rates. In my opinion they would go down if people didn’t have an expectation that the roads will be cleared and chose not to make the trip at all.

How realistic is that?

[lordofthemark]

back of the envelope

Nat Assoc of bike dealers says total sales of bikes, parts, accessories is about $6 billion. Pro rating that on population I get $150 million in Va. Applying the 5.3% sales tax thats about 8 million dollars a year (and does not reflect public health, environmental or other benefits – its just a “trust fund” kind of calculation) I guess not everyone sees sales taxes on bike stuff as the moral equivalent of the gas tax (since cars are also subject to sales taxes – but then do we want to get into the sales taxes on food that cyclists eat? if we dont eat more incrementally, then thats just cause we are more efficient)

Is more than 8 million a year spent in Va by the state and localities on bike only (including the bike share of offroad MUTs)?

[consularrider]

@lordofthemark 68730 wrote:

… (since cars are also subject to sales taxes …

Isn’t the sales tax on cars lower than that on bikes?

[DismalScientist]

@jabberwocky 68728 wrote:

The Office of Personnel Management director said the cost to the government in lost work was $100 million per day. Thats for 230,000 federal workers. What would the cost be for the 6+million people who live in VA over an entire winter of storms?

We still got paid. So, cost to the state of Virginia of federal workers relaxing at home: 0. :rolleyes:

As for sales taxes, some are delayed by the snow, but not lost.

What about the added sales tax on toilet paper sales?:rolleyes:

[jabberwocky]

@DismalScientist 68733 wrote:

We still got paid. So, cost to the state of Virginia of federal workers relaxing at home: 0. :rolleyes:

As for sales taxes, some are delayed by the snow, but not lost.

What about the added sales tax on toilet paper sales?:rolleyes:

Heh. I didn’t mean cost for the federal workers, just the cost of workers in general. I don’t get paid when I get a snow day (unless I take a vacation day). So thats less money in my pocket, and less income tax I’m paying. If my boss does decide to pay me, he still didn’t get any work out of me for that day, which puts him behind on whatever project ate that cost. Thats less money for his business, which means less tax from him. Small businesses don’t often have a huge rainy day fund; what happens if we get a big snowfall and they are all forced to close for a week?

Multiply that times the millions of people, for each day that things are closed and it adds up quickly.

[Author]

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