Freezing Saddles 2015

[vern]

Strava double-counted/posted my commute home last night so I manually deleted one of them.

[rcannon100]

The Kansas City Star coverage of the great blizzard of 2015. Rule 9.

[IMG]http://www.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/1nyvkt/picture8227980/ALTERNATES/FREE_960/Winter%20Weather%20%282%29[/IMG]

[rcannon100]

Is it my imagination, or is this the most competitive FS that we have had? Normally by now the teams have separation and pretty much keep that separation. I do not believe we have ever seen such a tight competition with so many teams switching places.

Compliments to Emma and ACL for racking the billiard balls (setting the teams and substitutes)

And Team Octothorpe ~~~ take the day off wood ya?!

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[Sunyata]

@rcannon100 107812 wrote:

And Team Octothorpe ~~~ take the day off wood ya?!

No, NEVER! 😎

As a side note, this is seriously the best and most fun cycling competition I have ever done. And it is really putting me in a favourable position for completing the SM100 later this year (my first attempt at doing 100 miles on a mountain bike). So thank you to everyone who has helped put this together.

[jrenaut]

On Saturday, Team 10 had 3 metric centuries, a 50 mile ride, a 30 mile ride, and all but maybe one person had at least a sleaze ride, and I think we lost ground. The competition is definitely more intense this year. And I know I’ve ridden more miles yet am much further down the individual leaderboard than last year.

[dbb]

I did my Team 10 sleaze ride at about 0430 before my flight to Florida. Haven’t yet uploaded it. Alas I was not able to ride on Sunday but will bang something out upon my return to DC this evening.

[Steve O]

@rcannon100 107812 wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is this the most competitive FS that we have had? Normally by now the teams have separation and pretty much keep that separation. I do not believe we have ever seen such a tight competition with so many teams switching places.

Compliments to Emma and ACL for racking the billiard balls (setting the teams and substitutes)

And Team Octothorpe ~~~ take the day off wood ya?!

I think a large part of the difference is that there are more teams. The separation from first to last is virtually identical to last year, so the overall tightness is relatively unchanged. But the fact that there are more teams within that range puts each team closer to others.

Quick statistical update: In simulations, team assignments this year outperform pure random assignments 80% of the time. This year’s assignments perform almost as well as the Modified Random proposal, with MR outperforming current rankings 60% of the time and vice versa 40%.

[bikeeveryday]

I agree the competition is fierce! I have been following the FS web page and watching on Strava, but not doing much on the Forum. I have a question, which maybe has already been answered: are indoor trainer rides counted in this competition? Seems to me there are some of those posted, and I thought this was a ride outside encouragement activity… If they don’t count, how does the great FS web site parse them out?

[cvcalhoun]

@bikeeveryday 108085 wrote:

I agree the competition is fierce! I have been following the FS web page and watching on Strava, but not doing much on the Forum. I have a question, which maybe has already been answered: are indoor trainer rides counted in this competition? Seems to me there are some of those posted, and I thought this was a ride outside encouragement activity… If they don’t count, how does the great FS web site parse them out?

If you mark the ride as a trainer ride, or put #NOBAFS in the description, it doesn’t get counted. The scoreboard is smart that way.

[americancyclo]

@Steve O 107857 wrote:

I think a large part of the difference is that there are more teams. The separation from first to last is virtually identical to last year, so the overall tightness is relatively unchanged. But the fact that there are more teams within that range puts each team closer to others.

Quick statistical update: In simulations, team assignments this year outperform pure random assignments 80% of the time. This year’s assignments perform almost as well as the Modified Random proposal, with MR outperforming current rankings 60% of the time and vice versa 40%.

Can you define “outperform” in this context?

[vvill]

Definitely seems like fiercer competition this year. Amazing to see the numbers of miles being racked up by so many riders throughout all the teams.

Glad I’m not competing (other than side bets I guess, which I haven’t actually participated in either, yet – beerneuring has been tempting though!)

[Steve O]

@americancyclo 108093 wrote:

Can you define “outperform” in this context?

Yes; sorry that was unclear. I take the ratio of points of the last place team divided by the first place team. The higher that value, the closer the teams are, and, presumably, the more competitive. I realize this is not a perfect measure of “dispersion,” but it’s a starting point. As of Feb. 7, this value was 62% for BAFS2015, Last year’s ending value was 63%.

There was a long discussion last fall about this starting with this post.

[rcannon100]

@Steve O 107857 wrote:

I think a large part of the difference is that there are more teams. The separation from first to last is virtually identical to last year, so the overall tightness is relatively unchanged. But the fact that there are more teams within that range puts each team closer to others.

Quick statistical update: In simulations, team assignments this year outperform pure random assignments 80% of the time. This year’s assignments perform almost as well as the Modified Random proposal, with MR outperforming current rankings 60% of the time and vice versa 40%.

Oh we stopped counting Vin a long time ago. At this point, the first and the last place teams are outliers. As for all the other teams, its never been so close with so many teams constantly switching places. After all, one must consider standard deviations. In previous years, your team established its place, or position, or whatever (who cares grammar idiots) – and that was it. You cruised to the end zone. This year, if I dont put in 50 miles days, Shawn of the Dread will beat me!

[DismalScientist]

@rcannon100 108106 wrote:

In previous years, your team established its place, or position, or whatever (who cares grammar idiots) – and that was it. You cruised to the end zone.

I think you misremember two years ago.

[ShawnoftheDread]

@rcannon100 108106 wrote:

This year…Shawn of the Dread will beat me!

Yeah, that’s difficult.

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