Bike Tour of Climate Impacts in DC

[DismalScientist]

According to climatechange.org, sea levels will rise between 4 inches and 19 inches by 2050. This implies without climate change, DC faces a 65% chance of seeing a flood over 6.5 to 7.75 ft in the next 30 years. :rolleyes:

[mbroad]

@DismalScientist 190384 wrote:

According to climatechange.org, sea levels will rise between 4 inches and 19 inches by 2050. This implies without climate change, DC faces a 65% chance of seeing a flood over 6.5 to 7.75 ft in the next 30 years. :rolleyes:

And the Navy is planning to invest big $$$ in DC to adapt to this flooding/sea level rise. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/pentagon-weighs-14-foot-flood-wall-at-historic-navy-yard-in-d-c

[ImaCynic]

@mbroad 190386 wrote:

And the Navy is planning to invest big $$$ in DC to adapt to this flooding/sea level rise. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/pentagon-weighs-14-foot-flood-wall-at-historic-navy-yard-in-d-c

Oh no, not another wall!

[dasgeh]

@mbroad 190382 wrote:

Did you know that DC has a 65% chance of seeing a flood over 8 ft in the next 30 years?

As climate change spurs rising seas, what parts of DC are most vulnerable to flooding? This all-ages bike ride will tour the parts of the city most susceptible to climate impacts. Citizens’ Climate Lobby will lead participants to DC sites where sea barriers are planned and have already been built, and where flooding is expected. The trail will be under 5 miles and friendly to riders of all ages and skill levels.

FUN RIDE: After the last stop, more experienced cyclists can join for a fun ride along the beautiful Anacostia River Trail to Kenilworth Gardens.

Sat, May 11, 2019
1:00 PM – 2:30 PM EDT

Location
US Navy Memorial Plaza (7th & Pennsylvania NW)
In front of Archives Metro Station

REGISTER HERE: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/bike-tour-dc-climate-impacts-tickets-60536200405

I’d love to see this in Arlington, and would hope it would point out how the bike network is impacted by flooding.

[Judd]

@dasgeh 190392 wrote:

I’d love to see this in Arlington, and would hope it would point out how the bike network is impacted by flooding.

Komorebi has something climate change related in the works for June . Not sure if it will get in to trail impacts.

The Friends of Dyke Marsh have a quarterly meeting this month where the speaker will talk about sea level rise and the impact on Dyke Marsh (which will impact most of the MVT in the same way).

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DismalScientist]

@mbroad 190386 wrote:

And the Navy is planning to invest big $$$ in DC to adapt to this flooding/sea level rise. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/pentagon-weighs-14-foot-flood-wall-at-historic-navy-yard-in-d-c

1.3 foot rise by 2035? You guys need to come up with a consistent set of numbers before one can figure out how to address these issues. How does a 1.3 foot over the next 16 years compare with historic sea level rises.

I noticed something about a rise in sea levels requiring walls around the Jefferson Memorial, but the article also mentioned ground subsidence also contributing to the need for walls. Only one of these is affected by climate change.

[accordioneur]

@DismalScientist 190401 wrote:

1.3 foot rise by 2035? You guys need to come up with a consistent set of numbers before one can figure out how to address these issues.

Climate scientists, unlike economists, recognize that they can’t predict the future precisely and so they give ranges. You have to plan as best you can within the precision of the forecast. I will also point out that 16 inches by 2035 is not inconsistent with 4-19 inches by 2050.

@DismalScientist 190401 wrote:

How does a 1.3 foot over the next 16 years compare with historic sea level rises.

Great question. Reminds me of when my elderly father almost drowned in Hurricane Sandy. He refused to leave his house before the storm because historically, it had never flooded.

[DismalScientist]

Assuming a modicum of linearity in the system will make a 16 inch rise in 16 years inconsistent with the high estimate of 19 inches in 31 years.

Actually, the 4 to 19 inches came from a 2008 publication. It’s 2019 now. How is that prediction panning out?

The only reason I’m being a pain here is given the relative magnitude of sea level rise and flood level heights caused by storms means that the 65% probably of an 8 foot flood, of true, is almost completely unrelated to sea level rise, presumably the harm associated with climate change.

On the notion of model consistency, if models of the same thing generate different results, how do we choose which model to trust?

PS: Any forecasting economist who doesn’t provide a standard error (a measure of range) when asked with his estimates should be drummed out of the profession.

[mstone]

@DismalScientist 190404 wrote:

Assuming a modicum of linearity in the system will make a 16 inch rise in 16 years inconsistent with the high estimate of 19 inches in 31 years.[/quote]
I don’t know why one would assume linearity.

Quote:

The only reason I’m being a pain here is given the relative magnitude of sea level rise and flood level heights caused by storms means that the 65% probably of an 8 foot flood, of true, is almost completely unrelated to sea level rise, presumably the harm associated with climate change.

Sea level rise is one outcome of climate change, more frequent and more severe storms is another. Both can combine to amplify the effects of each.

[DismalScientist]

Do you know of any climate change model suggesting that a reasonable outcome is that sea level will rise rapidly for 15 years and that then the rise will substantially end? A linearity assumption just assumes a constant change over time.

The original poster referred to the flood problem due to rising sea levels not me. Whether climate change affects storm frequency and intensity is heavily debated now, but eventually one or both sides of the debate will declare victory and demand any unrepentant opponents be subject to unspeakable torture.

[SarahBee]

@DismalScientist 190404 wrote:

Assuming a modicum of linearity in the system will make a 16 inch rise in 16 years inconsistent with the high estimate of 19 inches in 31 years.

Actually, the 4 to 19 inches came from a 2008 publication. It’s 2019 now. How is that prediction panning out?

The only reason I’m being a pain here is given the relative magnitude of sea level rise and flood level heights caused by storms means that the 65% probably of an 8 foot flood, of true, is almost completely unrelated to sea level rise, presumably the harm associated with climate change.

On the notion of model consistency, if models of the same thing generate different results, how do we choose which model to trust?

PS: Any forecasting economist who doesn’t provide a standard error (a measure of range) when asked with his estimates should be drummed out of the profession.

General question, tangentially related. How great would it be if meteorologists (weather forecasters) also included standard error in their weather estimates. I mean, forecasts are mostly statistics after all anyway. I can always dream… 50% chance of rain given a normal model with an error range of + or – 10%.

[LhasaCM]

@SarahBee 190423 wrote:

General question, tangentially related. How great would it be if meteorologists (weather forecasters) also included standard error in their weather estimates. I mean, forecasts are mostly statistics after all anyway. I can always dream… 50% chance of rain given a normal model with an error range of + or – 10%.

The challenge is in making that accessible and easy enough to digest to people not used to thinking probabilistically.

To that end: I like how the Capital Weather Gang does its snow forecasts (showing the boom and bust totals with chances of either end of the range happening).

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

[ImaCynic]

Just did a ride over the weekend that went out to Hoopers Island in MD’s Eastern Shore. Did the same ride couple of years ago and flooded roads cut short the excursion onto the island. This year while the roads are not flooded, the Chesapeake Bay seemed precariously close along the route. Once on the island, one glaring thing was the number of “For Sale” signs dotting the yards there.

Met and chatted with another cyclist that is familiar with the region and discovered that not only the island is being impacted by the rising sea level, but the land is actually sinking. I seriously doubt any plans are being devised to address this issue there other than to move away and letting it be reclaimed by the Bay. Did a google search once I got back and found this:

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/maryland/underwater-rising-seas-threaten-dmv-homes-cemeteries-infrastructure/65-54ef778d-0841-4e91-838b-4de880af4c87

Yes, I actually saw a flooded cemetery. Do this ride next year if you like to see just how real this issue is.

[consularrider]

@ImaCynic 190432 wrote:

Just did a ride over the weekend that went out to Hoopers Island in MD’s Eastern Shore. Did the same ride couple of years ago and flooded roads cut short the excursion onto the island. This year while the roads are not flooded, the Chesapeake Bay seemed precariously close along the route. Once on the island, one glaring thing was the number of “For Sale” signs dotting the yards there.

Met and chatted with another cyclist that is familiar with the region and discovered that not only the island is being impacted by the rising sea level, but the land is actually sinking. I seriously doubt any plans are being devised to address this issue there other than to move away and letting it be reclaimed by the Bay. Did a google search once I got back and found this:

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/maryland/underwater-rising-seas-threaten-dmv-homes-cemeteries-infrastructure/65-54ef778d-0841-4e91-838b-4de880af4c87

Yes, I actually saw a flooded cemetery. Do this ride next year if you like to see just how real this issue is.

Lots of abandoned houses on the route as well.

[dasgeh]

@Judd 190399 wrote:

Komorebi has something climate change related in the works for June . Not sure if it will get in to trail impacts.

The Friends of Dyke Marsh have a quarterly meeting this month where the speaker will talk about sea level rise and the impact on Dyke Marsh (which will impact most of the MVT in the same way).

Very cool. I’d love to see Arlington permanently mark the flood detours and have a way to indicate when a path is flood at the detour decision point.

[Author]

Posts