Another assault on the Met Branch Trail

[PotomacCyclist]

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Woman-Grabbed-Robbed-and-Struck-Along-Metropolitan-Branch-Trail-281869351.html

There needs to be a permanent solution to the crime problem. More active development along the trail or something. I don’t recall hearing about as many attacks on other area trails.

Topic

[lordofthemark]

@jabberwocky 99558 wrote:

Honestly, if you’re going to be accidentally shot in this country, its much more likely to be by a cop than a CHL holder.

We have quite a lot of general info on CHL laws affecting crime rates (in that we have a variety of states that have passed them while adjacent demographically similar states have not, and can compare overall accidental shooting and crime rates before and after) and the reality is that they don’t really change things either way. I don’t buy them as some sort of crime solution, but I also don’t see them making things worse. If DC passed (or, more likely, lost in court and were forced to allow) concealed carry, I seriously doubt it would have any impact at all on either crime rates or your chances of being accidentally shot in the city. Its not like DC is some sort of gun free panacea now. Its worth noting that, of the 3 major jurisdictions (DC, Maryland and Virginia), Virginia has by far the most liberal gun laws and also by far the lowest violent crime rate.

Most illegal guns in DC, and up and down the east coast, IIUC, come from Virgnian. Its not like there are guards at the border to prevent gun smuggling. I would also suggest that DC has concentrations of urban poverty that Virginia as a whole does not have. (More on topic, if I read the Alexandria crime map right, there have been quite a few assaults and at least one rape in recent months on the Holmes Run Trail, where concealed carry is possible, IIUC)

Clearly cases can be made (and have been made) that tighter gun regulation benefits public safety broadly (including crime, accidents, and suicides) There are also cases that can be made (and have been made) that looser gun regularions does not harm, or even benefits public safety.

Unless and until we get an off topic forum (at which point I want to talk about one party rule in Singapore) I would suggest that continued discussion of the overall impact of gun laws on public safety (other than, say, advice on how to handle a hand gun while riding a bike) is only going to leave people really frustrated at not getting the last word in.

So, I should get the last word. So, should WABA refocus on lighting the trail, or focus all its energies on finishing the trail?

[skins_brew]

jabberwocky;99558 wrote:

honestly, if you’re going to be accidentally shot in this country, its much more likely to be by a cop or a criminal than a chl holder.

lmftfy…..

[Crickey7]

As a practical matter, the way the DC gun laws are written (and which would not change if it were to be come a shall-issue jurisdiction), MPD would have lots of ability to harass CW permit holders. The combination of the extensive fixed locations where guns would be prohibited and the floating ones based on the proximity to certain officials would give MPD virtual carte blanche to detain a CW holder anywhere near downtown, including the Southern terminus of the MBT.

So while it’s not a foolish discussion in the context of what individual riders might do to ensure their own safety on the MBT, it is unlikely to offer a realistic solution.

[hozn]

@jabberwocky 99558 wrote:

Its worth noting that, of the 3 major jurisdictions (DC, Maryland and Virginia), Virginia has by far the most liberal gun laws and also by far the lowest violent crime rate.

Is it? This has been mentioned a couple times, but folks keep forgetting to include the link(s) to the studies that link this violent crime rate with gun control laws. What about the differences in population density or unemployment percentage or even racial diversity? All these (and numerous other differences) irrelevant?

[lordofthemark]

@Crickey7 99563 wrote:

As a practical matter, the way the DC gun laws are written (and which would not change if it were to be come a shall-issue jurisdiction), MPD would have lots of ability to harass CW permit holders. The combination of the extensive fixed locations where guns would be prohibited and the floating ones based on the proximity to certain officials would give MPD virtual carte blanche to detain a CW holder anywhere near downtown, including the Southern terminus of the MBT.

So while it’s not a foolish discussion in the context of what individual riders might do to ensure their own safety on the MBT, it is unlikely to offer a realistic solution.

The Holmes Run Trail in Alexandria had a spate of highly publicized asaults in 2012. It LOOKS like there were some this year based on examination of the Alexandria crime map, though I cannot find press reports. So either its still a problem despite CCL in Va, or its no longer a problem despite no change in the CCL and AFAIK no incidents in which a victim pulled a gun on an assailant.

All that may have changed is increased use of the trail (I’m not sure of that, but the new bridge, and general growth in biking in Alexandria may have helped)

[jabberwocky]

@lordofthemark 99560 wrote:

Most illegal guns in DC, and up and down the east coast, IIUC, come from Virgnian. Its not like there are guards at the border to prevent gun smuggling. I would also suggest that DC has concentrations of urban poverty that Virginia as a whole does not have. (More on topic, if I read the Alexandria crime map right, there have been quite a few assaults and at least one rape in recent months on the Holmes Run Trail, where concealed carry is possible, IIUC)

As I said, I don’t see concealed carry as some sort of crime solution. I believe the crime rate in Virginia has always been lower (at similar ratios) to MD and DC, predating the creation of CHL laws in the 90s. Its just, you can look at VA liberalizing gun laws, while DC and MD makes things stricter, and see all 3 basically track the national average exactly the same as before. I find it hard to say that those laws are in any way useful or effective, nor that the VA laws are harmful. Its all emotion from both sides, which makes for poor legislation. Though I guess people can feel good about it, and legislators can say they Did Something™.

@skins_brew 99561 wrote:

lmftfy…..

Apologies, I should have specified “by someone in legal possession of a firearm”.

[jabberwocky]

@hozn 99566 wrote:

Is it? This has been mentioned a couple times, but folks keep forgetting to include the link(s) to the studies that link this violent crime rate with gun control laws. What about the differences in population density or unemployment percentage or even racial diversity? All these (and numerous other differences) irrelevant?

I would not make the argument that the gun laws make any difference either way, and would completely agree that other things (what you mention as well as poverty levels, access to good education, etc) are what drive it.

[rcannon100]

There are studies (that I will not bother to link to) that correlate crime to economic growth. Right now Virginia has a strong economy (thank you tech sector and Washington D.C. suburb).

[lordofthemark]

@jabberwocky 99569 wrote:

As I said, I don’t see concealed carry as some sort of crime solution. I believe the crime rate in Virginia has always been lower (at similar ratios) to MD and DC, predating the creation of CHL laws in the 90s. Its just, you can look at VA liberalizing gun laws, while DC and MD makes things stricter, and see all 3 basically track the national average exactly the same as before. I find it hard to say that those laws are in any way useful or effective, nor that the VA laws are harmful. Its all emotion from both sides, which makes for poor legislation. Though I guess people can feel good about it, and legislators can say they Did Something™.

Apologies, I should have specified “by someone in legal possession of a firearm”.

First off, Va’s liberal gun laws don’t just effect Va – they effect neighboring states as well, a simple statistical relationship between state gun laws and state crime rates will miss that.

Plus there are public safety impacts other than crime – http://thinkprogress.org/health/2013/11/14/2945661/study-guns-suicides/

Plus there are limits on research on the issue – http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/us/26guns.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

[jabberwocky]

@lordofthemark 99575 wrote:

First off, Va’s liberal gun laws don’t just effect Va – they effect neighboring states as well, a simple statistical relationship between state gun laws and state crime rates will miss that.

Why would gun availability in VA affect (for example) NY, but not VA?

@lordofthemark 99575 wrote:

Plus there are public safety impacts other than crime – http://thinkprogress.org/health/2013/11/14/2945661/study-guns-suicides/

The US has a decidedly average overall suicide rate for a first world nation, despite our much higher firearm ownership.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

[lordofthemark]

@jabberwocky 99582 wrote:

Why would gun availability in VA affect (for example) NY, but not VA?

The US has a decidedly average overall suicide rate for a first world nation, despite our much higher firearm ownership.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

The particular weakness of gun laws in Va that has been at issue is the ability to purchase multiple guns quickly, which is presumably of greater importance to gun smuglers. Also its possible relaxing that policy DID increase crime from what it otherwise would have been in Va, but in line with other states as well.

As for suicide – when we were talking violent crime, the argument was made that comparisons among states showed no benefit from tighter gun laws. Presumably the lower violent crime rates in other 1st world countries is due to some social or cultural factore. Fine. But when we are talking suicide, you would rather talk about national rates (and from a wiki table?) rather than a state by state comparison that controlled for confounding factors?

See this is why I want the subject dropped. Its long, its complicated. Each side can show the results it likes, and accuse the other of cherry picking. The proper place to debate is where we have lots of informed people on each side of the debate. That is not here.

Lets discuss biking safety.

Holmes Run Trail appears to have gotten safer between 2012 and today. Anyone care to discuss why?

[dasgeh]

BTW, I seem to remember someone saying they do or did ride with mace or pepper spray or something in a holster on the top tube of their bike. Was that here?

Also, there was a question on the Women & Bikes group about whether it’s ok to ride the MVT and MBT after dark. Generally, the response was “MVT is fine, MBT… here are some suggestions”. The suggestions were basically take 4th St and stop and wait for a ride buddy. Sound right?

[Anonymous]

I don’t remember ever mentioning it here (maybe I did), but I do have pepper spray, and also one of those personal alarm thingies. Purchase initially inspired by a rather large dog on the other side of a not very tall fence I regularly ride past alone, but as long as I was getting something I did then consider potential human aggressors as well. I don’t necessarily take them everywhere with me, but they are available to me if I’m going somewhere I think it’s a good idea, which includes my ride to work past the large dog (who I’ve eventually decided isn’t really all that interested in jumping the fence, but he can put up a good show about it) and any trails that are largely deserted when I’m traveling alone. I wound up with both because I suspected that in many cases the alarm would be a better bet against a human in a reasonably populated area (can’t be used against me, can’t be mis-aimed, as long as I manage to pull the pin thingy it’s going to continue working even if someone takes the alarm away from me) but I wasn’t so sure about a dog or other dangerous animal. Anyway, they are both small and light (also, inexpensive) and easily carried in a top tube bag, along with room for other useful things like keys, badges, and granola bars. The pepper spray is probably not technically allowed in my workplace (I am not actually sure about this) but is not something that will get me in too much trouble for having, if someone were to find it. I am comfortable leaving either of them on the bike while I go inside a place without having to worry about having a firearm properly secured from theft. I would be less hesitant to use either of them than a gun because if I make a mistake I may cause temporary pain but will not permanently harm or kill someone. The alarm can’t be used against me, and while the pepper spray can be used against me if taken, it won’t kill me (I realize someone could disable me with it and then kill me by other means, if they are set on murder, but it won’t kill me by default if it goes off in a struggle or they grab-and-shoot).

Neither of them would necessarily be all that helpful against a surprise attack that knocked me off my bike. But I don’t know what else would, either, for something like that, other than not being there, or having another person with me at all times. And one of those won’t fit in my top tube bag.

[Orestes Munn]

I carried pepper spray for a few years after I was run off the road and beaten by four teenagers in a car on my evening commute, back in about 1992. However, I stopped carrying it after a few peaceful years–knock on wood. I practiced whipping it out it from various carrying places, but never really had much confidence that I could deploy it effectively or that I wouldn’t gas myself worse than my antagonist. I was always a better runner than fighter.

[DismalScientist]

@hozn 99566 wrote:

Is it? This has been mentioned a couple times, but folks keep forgetting to include the link(s) to the studies that link this violent crime rate with gun control laws. What about the differences in population density or unemployment percentage or even racial diversity? All these (and numerous other differences) irrelevant?

The bottom of this wikipedia article surveys the empirical literature: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concealed_carry_in_the_United_States
Both sides of the argument claim the others are biased and hopelessly corrupt. I have no dog in this fight. I am eminently qualified to determine which side is right, but I’m not going to read the articles because I just don’t care.

[Author]

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