Weather issues next week?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/new-noreaster-may-hit-east-coast-next-week/2012/11/01/8927312c-2453-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html

Boo! got my hopes up for a *real* winter storm. Oh well. Cold rain is good too.

Unfortunately, this afternoon’s run of the main US medium term model has come into agreement with the Euro. Lots of blustery rain next Wednesday. We really need the sun to come out this weekend and dry out the ground before the next rainstorm — otherwise more flooding on our riverside trails a possibility.

@Certifried 34977 wrote:

Isn’t this a little like the boy who cried wolf? They keep playing up these storms, I heard them say “a nor’easter!” all excitedly. They make it sound so Armageddonish, then when a “REAL” storm (like Sandy) hits, people say “that’s what you always say”. Now there are a lot of dead people. When it finally comes around to the Zombie Apocalypse, I hope people don’t take it lightly.

Man, many of those dead people died of their own choosing and it is NOT the fault of weather forecasts… unless you’re Italian and you believe that seismologists should be jailed for not forecasting an earthquake (death of science, but what do you expect from Italians). It is ridiculous that people can live on the coast and not understand weather. Many of these same people don’t heed evacuation warnings because of stupid excuses and now they’re dead. The government can’t regulate stupidity.

Anyway, Nor’easters have a history of bombing out and undergoing rapid cyclogenesis so even a modest one can turn into a monster in as little as a day. They cause severe coastal erosion and flooding and blizzard conditions in higher elevations and strong gusty winds over a huge area. They’re worth the early hype, even though this won’t be as bad as SS Sandy. The ECMWF model is elusive because it’s not free to look at like the GFS or other American models. The ECMWF is generally agreed to be the best model.

I thought the forecasting was excellent for this hurricane, and I was surprised at the number of dead given how serious the warnings were (but that may just be my ignorance). I guess maybe they should’ve had forced evacuations but that opens up several other cans of worms.

I do think you have to wait until closer to the event to get a more accurate local forecast. The only potential “issue” with relying on CWG is that they are weather geeks as well as forecasters so they don’t just disseminate local weather forecast information and you may have to sift more for a summary. For me, that’s a good thing though as I find it interesting and feel like I’m learning when I read their posts.